By Pastor Heather Kirk-Davidoff and Google Gemini
At the conversation about our draft of a Five-Year Plan for Westminster on September 21, Kris Wilhelm raised an excellent question: has there been research about what actually helps churches like ours grow our membership? I told Kris that there is indeed research on that topic–but I wasn’t able at that moment to give a succinct summary of what that work has shown.
When I got home, I posed Kris’ question to Google Gemini, an Artificial Intelligence program that I have been learning how to use. This is the kind of thing AI is designed to do. Within a few minutes, it generated a research paper on the topic of membership growth in mainline churches completed with footnotes and citations. While this certainly isn’t the last word on the topic, I did find the paper to be a helpful–and hopeful–starting point. I forwarded the full paper to Kris and would be happy to share it with any of you who are interested. Here’s a short summary of what the paper said:
What Growing Churches Have in Common
Mainline Protestant churches in the U.S. have been declining in membership for over 60 years. But while denominations are shrinking, many individual congregations are finding new life and growth. What separates a church in decline from one that’s thriving? According to research, growing churches share a set of common characteristics.
1. A Clear and Confident Theological Vision
The research shows a strong connection between a church’s conviction and its growth. A study on growing and declining Protestant churches in Canada found that the ones that grew were more confident in their faith and more motivated to share it.
As one researcher noted, when a church’s primary message becomes indistinguishable from the wider culture, it is perceived as irrelevant, as a place to “hear what can be heard elsewhere.” The data suggests that a confident vision and a sense of having something unique to offer the world are the real drivers of missional energy and growth.
2. A Focus on Authentic Community
In a world of increasing social isolation, growing churches understand the power of genuine, in-person community. The key is a shift from focusing on “attendance” to cultivating deep “engagement” through intentional discipleship, such as small groups and Bible studies. This creates a tangible, in-person benefit that online media or self-directed spirituality cannot replicate, making the church an irreplaceable part of a person’s life.
3. A Relentless Focus on the Next Generation
A central finding across all the research is the importance of ministry to the next generation. Growing churches prioritize creating high-quality, safe, and engaging environments for children, youth, and young adults. Surprisingly, recent data shows that Millennials are returning to church at a higher rate than Generation X and Boomers, with non-white Millennials driving a significant portion of this increase.
4. Strategic and Adaptive Leadership
Many Northeast churches face the unique challenge of managing aging buildings built for a different era, a problem that drains limited funds and the energy of congregational leaders. There has been some good research that points to the need for strategic, adaptive leadership that can address these practical problems, not just spiritual ones. Successful models for sustaining these churches include strengthening partnerships, merging congregations, and planting new worshipping communities.
A Path Forward
The research shows that vitality and growth are a result of a church’s willingness to be both intentional and countercultural. When a church is clear that it has something to offer the wider world–moral clarity, authentic community–and when it is led with strategy and vision, the data shows that health and growth will result.
What do you think, Westminster? Do we have what it takes to grow?
